Inside the Trading Room
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March 21st, 2022
Trading the Madness: How Sporttrade Will Change your NCAA Experience Forever
By Dan Koob
As the shredded remains of my 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Bracket rained down upon me, I had to accept that I had no one to blame for picking UVA to go to the Final Four other than myself. How did I not see this historic UMBC upset coming?
But, let’s be real. Given the current sports betting landscape, would I have realistically taken UMBC to win at +2750 at a sportsbook, knowing a cashout option was probably never coming my way?
No. Never. Wouldn't it have been more fun (and profitable) to have been able to buy UMBC at incredible long odds pregame but then be able to sell at any point during the game knowing any sign of life from the Retrievers could fetch me a profit?
That's where Sporttrade comes in. As you may know by now, each outcome on Sporttrade is priced based on the probability of the outcome occurring. All ‘contracts’ on our app settle at either zero dollars (meaning an outcome didn’t happen) or $100 (meaning it did).
That allows exponential potential, especially when trading on a tournament prone to wild swings in momentum and probability. Anything can happen.
Let's put the only 16-seed to ever win a NCAA Men's College Basketball game under a microscope: UMBC didn’t become a ‘betting’ favorite until they were leading by 14 points in the second half with over 12 minutes left.
At that stage, there's much less incentive to actually place a bet on them. Whereas on Sporttrade, UMBC would have been trading ~$51 per contract and would have already made you ~$50 per each original $1 contract.
This game provides the perfect template of the difference between Trading the Madness on Sporttrade and just betting on basketball games at a sportsbook.
We don’t have to look too far in the past to see how the value of trading completely changes your Tournament experience. We only have to hop into our Madness Time Machine (patent pending) and set the dial for last Thursday.
The first day of the 2022 tournament had three upsets alone that showcased three distinct ways in which Sporttrade’s unique features maximize your experience.
1. 15-seed St. Peter's opened up as the 2nd cheapest option on the opening round board at just $5 per contract to beat 2-seed Kentucky.
Imagine if you had bought 5 contracts of St. Peter's at $5, just as a value play, knowing you can trade out at any time if the game is competitive?
The Peacocks offered immediate value, doubling their price within the first 8 minutes of the game and growing 10x in value by the beginning of overtime. At that point, you can be satisfied with your profits and cash out or let it ride. It’s up to you.
(Aside: Shout out to Jersey City!)
2. Basketball is a game of runs and Sporttrade allows traders to capitalize on this back and forth with the same kind of directional trading coveted by today’s retail investors. Richmond’s upset win over trendy title pick Iowa presented a clear directional trading opportunity.
The Spiders opened at $19 To Win, according to our market makers, with that contract value swelling to ~$53 per contract with the Spiders leading 34-26 at the 18:18 mark of the second half.
An 11-0 Iowa run then swung the probability towards the Hawkeyes, shifting the market to Iowa To Win ~$80 and Richmond To Win ~$20.
You know how this ends.
Richmond rebounds and shocks Iowa, providing you multiple profitable opportunities to move in and out of your positions based on momentum.
3. Sadly, we can’t win them all..
UConn opened ~$69 To Win and slowly marched their way to 0. If you were on the opposite side of New Mexico State and Teddy Allen (aka Teddy Buckets), you had basically the entire second half to stop your losses and dump any Uconn To Win contract.
The Huskies fluctuated between ~$45 and ~$20 per contract for a majority of the second half. Like a bad investment, sometimes you just have to cut your losses as you watch a guy drop 37 points on your head.
One more? Sure, one more.
And this one’s the for hardcore traders.
4. 1-seed Baylor was bounced by UNC Saturday, falling behind by 25 points with 10 minutes to go. The Tar Heels probability to win was 99%, which means the Bears were trading at ~ $1.
Buy the dip!
Why not, right? Did you think Baylor was going to just roll over? The Bears come back and force OT, bringing their probably/price to ~$50.
What if you had bought 5 contracts at $1 with 10 minutes left?
Having this sort of freedom with your trades will completely change how you approach betting the NCAA basketball tournament. Value plays actually return value, not just a hope and a prayer. Dump the leans and angles you previously believed to be true that were clearly not and capitalize on shifts in the market with no friction.
Like the markets, the NCAA Tournament can be an unpredictable beast.
But that’s what makes it so much fun.
This is trading the madness. This is the power of dynamic trading.
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