Golfer Probabilities to Win the 2022 Masters Tournament
Let’s take a look at the field and how the odds would be priced on Sporttrade, where price = probability.
If you were to bet on Jon Rahm, who is trading at $9 per contract on Sporttrade and he went on to win the Masters, your position would close at $100 netting you a $91 profit.
All statistics and odds are to date as of 3/18
Jon Rahm = $9
Why he’ll win: Simply put, Rahm is the best player in the world right now. The 27-year-old Spaniard has 6 career wins on the PGA Tour and recently notched his first Major victory with a clutch performance in the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. Rahm leads the Tour in strokes gained off-the-tee this season and crushes some of the farthest drives on Tour with a 315.2 average, two of the most important stats at Augusta National.
Why to stay away: Rahm has struggled to maintain his blistering finish to last season with a somewhat meandering start to 2021-22. He’s yet to notch a win, but did have a second-place finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and a T3 at the Farmers Insurance Open. Most concerning perhaps, is his play around the green. His strokes gained around-the-green has been messy, ranking 171st on the Tour and his putting hasn’t been much better, ranking 139th on the Tour in strokes gained putting; both stats that figure to play a huge role at some of the fastest greens in the country.
Colin Morikawa = $7.5
Why he’ll win: The 25-year-old Californian has had one of the fastest ascents to golf stardom in recent memory. During the condensed schedule that saw seven majors held within a 10-month period, Morikawa was the only player to pick up two Majors, the 2020 PGA Championship and the 2021 British Open. While still winless in 2021-22, Morikawa has been dialed in, picking up a T2 in an elite Genesis Invitational field and 2nd place at the CJ Cup @ Summit. He enters The Masters in top form with his putter, ranking 8th on the Tour in strokes gained putting.
Why to stay away: Familiarity is important at Augusta, and in his two previous Masters, his performances were underwhelming, finishing 44th and 18th, with his best score being 1-under par. He’s only carded one round in the 60’s (a 69 in his second round in 2021) on the par-72 Augusta National course.
Jordan Spieth = $7
Why he’ll win: As one of the most accomplished golfers in the field, Spieth enters the 2022 Masters Tournament looking for his first Major victory since 2017. Still just 28 years old, Spieth has shown signs of regaining the form that saw him collect three Major championships in a two-year span. His par-5 scoring average of 4.47 ranks 20th on the Tour, a crucial stat at Augusta where there are four par 5’s that need to be taken advantage of to gain strokes on the field.
Why to stay away: In some of the most important statistical categories for The Masters such as strokes gained on-approach, strokes gained around-the-green, and strokes gained putting, Spieth ranks 94th or worse. With narrow landing spots and lightning fast greens, Speith’s game will have to level up if he intends to pick up his second career Masters victory.
Justin Thomas = $6
Why he’ll win: One of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour and a truly elite ball striker, Justin Thomas has almost every tool you’d look for in a Masters winner. Thomas has played in six Masters, and made the cut in all six, carding impressive scores of 12-under par in 2020 and 8-under 2018. Despite his top finish being fourth place, Thomas is on a clear upward trajectory at Augusta and will almost certainly be in the mix on Saturday and Sunday.
Why to stay away: Two parts of Thomas’ game come with volatility: his putting and driving accuracy. His strokes gained putting ranks 127st and his driving accuracy ranks 141st, despite being one of the longest drivers. Fairway misses add up quickly at Augusta and with such small targets to aim for on the greens, relying on scrambling can be a dangerous proposition.
Cameron Smith = $6
Why he’ll win: I mean, have you seen this shot? Cam Smith is at the absolute peak of his powers after winning THE PLAYERS Championship in tremendously difficult weather and wind conditions. And it was no fluke either, Smith has already posted four Top-10 finishes in 2021-22, including wins at THE PLAYERS and the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua—which according to datagolf.com is the most similar course fit to Augusta National. So what’s been working for Smith? Just about everything. His stats in strokes gained on-approach, around-the-green, putting, and tee-to-green are all Top-25. On top of all of that, he’s also played well at the Masters recently, finishing T2 and T10 in his last two appearances.
Why to stay away: Augusta National plays long and Cameron Smith isn’t a bomber by nature. His driving distance of 297 yards ranks 110th on Tour and his accuracy of 54.95% is 162nd. Even with those detriments, he’s still 10th in greens-in-regulation percentage, but Augusta’s course layouts make approach shots from off the fairway dicey plays.
Dustin Johnson = $5
Why he’ll win: Don’t be fooled by DJ’s slow start to 2021-22, he’s on pace to be back to peak play just in time for The Masters. During THE PLAYERS Championship, Johnson finished T9 and recorded a 63 (!) in the final round, tying the course record. With one Green Jacket (2020) in the closet already, Johnson is one of the few players that performs at his best at Augusta National. Including his victory, he’s been top-10 five times, all of which occurred in the last six seasons. The only outlier was last season in which he missed the cut for the first time at Augusta.
Why to stay away: DJ is an absolute punisher with his driver, but often finds himself well off the fairway. While his putting remains one of the strongest in the field, his play around the green could cost him if he isn’t able to set himself up to knock down the 6-to-8 foot putts that he makes look perfunctory.
Rory McIlroy = $4.5
Why he’ll win: Already off to a good start in 2021-22, Rory has picked up a win at the CJ CUP and a T10 in the top-notch field at The Genesis Invitational. His putting, play around the green, and tee-to-green have all been stellar this season, and his driving continues to stand out, crushing it at an average of 318.4 yards. On top of that, his par-5 play is exceptional, ranking 2nd on the Tour with a 4.35 scoring average on par 5’s.
Why to stay away: Rory’s biggest nemesis on the Tour is often himself. The recent Arnold Palmer Invitational showcased the full Rory experience. McIlroy opened the Tournament ablaze with a 65, then carded rounds of 72, 76, 76, culminating in a T13 finish. Despite 10 top-25 finishes and six top-10’s, Rory is still chasing his first win at Augusta, which would give him the career Grand Slam that has eluded him to date.
Viktor Hovland = $4.50
Why he’ll win: The golfer who always seems like he’s about to break through. The 24-year-old Norwegian has showcased some of the best form of any player on Tour this season, racking up four Top-10 finishes and a victory at the World Wide Technology Championship. Hovland’s ball-striking stands out in his game, ranking 3rd on the Tour in strokes gained on-approach, arguably the most important statistic at Augusta National. His ability to land the ball on the green with touch and accuracy has helped cover some of his weaknesses putting and chipping. Unlike a lot of the favorites at The Masters, Hovland’s driving accuracy is exceptional as well, ranking 21st on the Tour with a 66.5% fairway hit rate.
Why to stay away: His aforementioned play on and around the green is certainly cause for concern on Augusta National’s difficult bentgrass greens. Hovland’s play also has a tendency to fall off during the weekend. Here’s how his scoring average ranks by round this season: Round 1 (25th), Round 2 (5th), Round 3 (52nd), Round 4 (32nd).
Patrick Cantlay = $4
Why he’ll win: Patrick Cantlay delivered a career-year in 2020-21, putting himself firmly on the map with four victories. He’s yet to hoist a trophy this season, but does boast four Top-10’s so far, including a 2nd place finish at the WM Phoenix Open. Cantlay’s strength has always been his chipping and putting, which is vital at Augusta’s undulating greens. Cantlay isn’t the longest driver on Tour but he certainly can keep up with the pack. He’s had mixed results at Augusta, but his most recent performance was his best, wrapping up the tournament 10-under par to finish in 9th.
Why to stay away: Cantlay’s stellar work around the greens might not be enough to lift him to a win at Augusta due to his subpar approach shot accuracy. The 29-year-old Californian ranks 145th on the Tour in strokes gained on approach, which could be the most important statistic of the Major Tournament.
Brooks Koepka = $3.5
Why he’ll win: This guy lives for Major Tournaments. Already with four Majors (two US Opens and two PGA Championships), Brooks enters 2022 in search of his first Masters victory. He’s been close to a Green Jacket before, notching a T2 in 2019 and a T7 in 2020. Brooks’ long-ball hitting should suit him well at Augusta, even if accuracy remains a concern. The bottom line with Brooks is even if he doesn’t appear in peak form, you can never count him out in a Major Tournament.
Why to stay away: Brooks hasn’t recorded a PGA Tour win since before a knee surgery to repair a kneecap dislocation on March 16, 2021. Despite notching some top-10’s during that time, including a T4 at the US Open, Koepka still seems to be struggling to regain his pre-injury form. His strokes gained around-the-green and on-approach have both taken dives in recent months and his driving accuracy, which was never a strength, remains a drag on his game. It’s hard to count Brooks out, but it might be prudent to wait for him to win one before backing him again.
Xander Schauffele = $3
Scottie Scheffler = $3
Hideki Matsuyama = $2.50
Bryson Dechambeau = $2
Paul Casey= $2
Will Zalatoris = $2
Adam Scott = 1.50
Joaquin Niemann = 1.50
Louis Oosthuizen = $1.50
Daniel Berger = $1.5
Tyrrell Hatton = $1.50
Patrick Reid = $1.5
Tony Finau = $1
Jason Day = $1
Billy Horschel = $1
Francesco Molinari = $1
Marc Leishman = $1
Max Homa = $0.50
Sergio Garcia = $0.50